Tesshin used his talk this week to explain Chaos/Complexity Theory and how it relates to our practice.  This set of theories started with a desire to predict and understand the weather, but it became a more generalized endeavor to build a conceptual framework to aid in general decision making.  Tesshin noted that this is the same goal of our practice – namely to act skillfully and compassionately in all situations.  As such, this framework can serve as yet another teaching tool on our path to awakening.  One common framework to understand chaos and complexity is the “Cynefin Framework“

The easiest way to think of this framework is a quadrant.  On the horizontal axis we measure how much knowledge or control we have in a situation.  The further to the right we travel, the more control we have.  On the vertical axis we measure complexity.  The higher we travel; the more factors need to be considered.

Tesshin next spoke briefly about each quadrant and related it to our day to day life.  The first quadrant is the bottom right.  This is the Basic or Obvious quadrant.  This is where we feel the most comfortable as we have the most knowledge and control and the issues are simple.  This is our happy spot so we want to have most situations we fact sit here.  For instance, if you flip a light switch, you get light.  We have total predictability and the conditions are pretty simple – LIGHT/DARK. 

Moving up to the top right, we get situations where we don’t know all the answers, but if we apply effort, we can gain mastery.  This is the “complicated” quadrant.  This is where personal growth occurs.  Many people on the spiritual path occupy this particular quadrant.  My life is not exactly what I wish, but if I put in enough hours on the cushion or pray hard enough – it will all begin to work out.  This is also the quadrant of the scientist and engineer.  We set out a goal, and as you get enough data or feedback, you modify evolve towards the desired end. 

Sometime we don’t have a complete control of cause and effect and it may not even be knowable.  This situation brings us to the top left quadrant, or Complex.  (not to be confused with the complicated quadrant we just covered.)  While you are in the complex situation, you have no real idea of what is going on.  This is what the researchers found out when they began to study weather patterns.  The best you can do in these situations is to build “simplifying models.”  You will probably end up having multiple models and you will have no idea which model is the most accurate when you need to predict.    The key thing, however, is that after the weather event, we do end up knowing which model was right – however previous success does not guarantee future success!  This is why we commonly see multiple weather models predict different weather conditions.  Users of the model then combine all the results in order to determine how to proceed.

Tesshin remarked that sometimes when we are in a Complex system, we have conditions where we will never find out the full cause and effect.  (e.g. try to predict the weather in a room with no windows!!)  This is the Chaos quadrant in the top right.  If complexity is challenging than Chaos is Complex squared!!  People generally do not like chaotic systems as they have little understanding and little control.  Many times, we retreat from this situation by trying to recast them into Simple or, at the worst, Complicated systems. 

Tesshin next asked why people on the spiritual path need to know about all of these quadrants and complexity?  Isn’t Zen all about simplicity.  Isn’t it all as simple and obvious as the moon shining on a still pond?  All one really needs to do is contemplate Mu for five minutes to understand that this is not the case!!  We enter the interview room to explain this and we realize how little control and understanding we really have!! 

Tesshin remarked that the main issue for us on the spiritual path is how we manage our lives.  As we move to complex or chaotic situations the ways in which we manage things must shift.  Our practice trains us in how to do that shift.  First, we learn that all models are true until they are not true.  We are always desperate to go back to a simple structure, but reality is not that way!  This is the struggle we have with Mu.  We are used to the simple This/That world.  However, that model keeps failing us.  The tighter we hold on, the further we get from the answer.  We are no longer in the simple world; we are in the world of complexity and chaos!!  Our skills in dealing with the dualistic reductionist world are not going to help anymore.  It is exactly the same with our current situation with the Covid virus.  Every solution and every model is true in some way.  Our leaders debate from the context of the Simple/Obvious realm.  “Stay Home!” or “Go Out!”  “Lock down everything!”  “Restart the Economy!”  It is all dualism!!  We are not in the simple world, but the chaotic world!!  What we are seeing is that there are many different models which will provide many different predictions.  Like the weather – we need to view them all and synthetize them into a plan.    We need to graduate from simple and embrace that life is complicated and even chaotic!!

Zen says that all dharmas are reality.  So, what are we to do?  Tesshin suggested that we cannot know every aspect of Karma, but based on our values and who we are at this very moment, we can make a stand and make a specific choice.  Making the choice lessens our burden because we understand that we are doing the best we can in a chaotic situation where endless thinking may not help.  We must not become attached to having the perfect, complete, and simple answer.  Rather, we make a decision, and then move to the next step then the next step and then the step after that.  Life moment to moment.  What are your karmic steps?  Don’t force the chaos of life into a simple YES/NO system – it will never work and will make matters even worse for you.  Live your chaotic life moment to moment.  You will do better than you think you can!